Value Future History

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Norman Macrae Future History Summary

Norman told some of the greatest ever: at least, ones that while he Deputy Edited The Economist (1950s-1980s) raised circulation from 4th ranked weekly to one of a kind global

Some of the world's favourites appeared to be:
on countries (about 10 foretold), starting with Japan (1,, in the 1960s for which on retirement he was awarded the Emperor's Order of the Rising sun for raising world trade to something more inspiring than just money; the clue here was to detect a place system that was compounding a great difference in Japan's case better total quality (in the 60s with much lower cost) than anyone- so good to become a world market leader in industries it prioritised eg cars, elecronics, cameras even though it had no ad budgets as was at time last into the markets- demonstrating that if you serve a better product, everyone will market you

On changing from machine-ruled organisation to service economic systems (ie beyond just hierarchical control to): empowering the greatest innovators (entrepreneurial revolution 1976), regarding the greatest service teams (Intrapreneurial now 1982)

Norman's Piece De Resistance: wasn't published in his annual Economist surveys but in a book The 2024 Report on the 40 years (1984-2024) when networks of people would change the world. (This book rolled out in different languages: American 2025 Report, French and German 2026 Reports). You can judge its currency for 2005 here, , and in this lies a warning - there were in any system of systems future 2 opposite poles , and not much in between. The 2024's Report concentrated on how to get to the optimistic scenario: using network connectivity to pass Buckminster's final examination in a world where all 6 billion people were demonstrably much better off by cooperating; however the opposite scenario was recognised as being almost exactly like Orwell's story (whose only error in its logics was being 40 years too early). In 2005, the window of opportunity lies with today's generation and the compound outcome for 2024 remains unclear, but it won't be in between.

One of the great advantages of future history storytelling -for all who participate as writers and readers and conversationalists - is that it can be a largely collaborative affair. From the writer's perspective of the biggest future trends that were already changing somewhere: there was seldom so much difference between Norman's views of the future & Drucker's on knowledge workers or Tofler's on Future Shocks or Gifford's Intrapreneurs. Partly this was because they went round to many of the same leadership conferences. And when it came to Naisbitt's Megatrend Series, Norman actually edited one of the UK editions of that. And as a minor point, Norman's 2024 was actualy co-authored by a dosctor in biology who also wrote science fiction stories, and a societal researcher in diversity who also pioneered some of the UK's early live experimnts in elearning content.

To celebrate his retirement at the age of 65, Norman embarked on a different kind of future history. The person he thought had most influence on chabging the world whose story had not yet been made into a full biography. He chose John von Neumann, and I as a mathematician I am very glad he did. Because the values of mathematics and open collaborative computing that Johnny stood for are argely being eroded by those big decison makers currently funding research & learning. This shows how vicious academia and government research funding has become (one of the longest open purposes yet subject to the same wrong maths as is destroying the integrity and deepest purpose of most organisational systems) in terms of not connecting the long term human good more clearly than I believe any other future history could.

A few other stories from over several thousand lead editorials and pamphlets written: homes for the people 1967

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

von neumann biography reviewed

American Mathematical Society review or reprint (1999)
John von Neumann
The Scientific Genius Who Pioneered the Modern
Computer, Game Theory, Nuclear Deterrence,
and Much More
Norman Macrae

I always thought [von Neumann’s] brain indicated that he
belonged to a new species, an evolution beyond man. Macrae
shows us in a lively way how this brain was nurtured and then
left its great imprint on the world.
—Hans A. Bethe, Cornell University

The book makes for utterly captivating reading. Von Neumann
was, of course, one of this century’s geniuses, and it is
surprising that we have had to wait so long … for a fully
fleshed and sympathetic biography of the man. But now,
happily, we have one. Macrae nicely delineates the cultural, familial, and educational environment from which von Neumann sprang and sketches the
mathematical and scientific environment in which he flourished.
It’s no small task to render a genius like von Neumann in ordinary
language, yet Macrae manages the trick, providing more
than a glimpse of what von Neumann accomplished intellectually
without expecting the reader to have a Ph.D. in
mathematics. Beyond that, he captures von Neumann’s qualities
of temperament, mind, and personality, including his effortless
wit and humor. And [Macrae] frames and accounts for von
Neumann’s politics in ways that even critics of them, among
whom I include myself, will find provocative and illuminating.
—Daniel J. Kevles, California Institute of Technology

A lively portrait of the hugely consequential mathematicianphysicist-
et al., whose genius has left an enduring impress on
our thought, technology, society, and culture. A double salute to
Steve White, who started this grand book designed for us avid,
nonmathematical readers, and to Norman Macrae, who brought
it to a triumphant conclusion.
—Robert K. Merton, Columbia University

This volume is the reprinted edition of the first full-scale biography
of the man widely regarded as the greatest scientist of
the century after Einstein.

Born in Budapest in 1903, John von Neumann grew up in one
of the most extraordinary of scientific communities. From his
arrival in America in the mid-1930s—with bases in Boston,
Princeton, Washington, and Los Alamos—von Neumann
pioneered and participated in the major scientific and political
dramas of the next three decades, leaving his mark on more
fields of scientific endeavor than any other scientist. Von
Neumann’s work in areas such as game theory, mathematics,
physics, and meteorology formed the building blocks for the
most important discoveries of the century: the modern
computer, game theory, the atom bomb, radar, and artificial
intelligence, to name just a few.

From the laboratory to the highest levels of government, this
definitive biography gives us a behind-the-scenes look at the
politics and personalities involved in these world-changing
discoveries. Written more than 30 years after von Neumann’s
untimely death at age 56, it was prepared with the cooperation
of his family and includes information gained from interviewing
countless sources across Europe and America. Norman
Macrae paints a highly readable, humanizing portrait of a man
whose legacy still influences and shapes modern science and
knowledge.